The Bank of Italy said Friday it raised its 2017-20 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast by an average of 0.1 percent over the next four years.
The Italian central bank said it expects seasonally adjusted GDP to grow by 1.6 percent this year, by 1.4 percent in 2018, and by 1.3 percent in 2019-20.
The numbers are higher than the last European Commission macro-economic forecast for Italy, published in November, which saw GDP adding 1.5 percent this year, 1.3 percent in 2018, and 1 percent in 2019.
In its new report, the Italian central bank forecast an employment rate rise of 4 percent in 2017-2020, with unemployment dropping to 10.5 percent in 2020 from 11.7 percent in 2016.
The bank said the national economy should continue to expand over the next four years, citing a “consolidation of the global cyclical recovery” and “accommodating monetary and financial conditions”.
The numbers are based on “more favorable outlooks” on foreign and domestic demand as well as interest rates, the report said.
On the downside, the Bank of Italy said “rising geopolitical tensions” could interfere with the global economic recovery.
The bank’s analysts came up with the numbers based on European Central Bank guidelines, the report said.