The 2019 presidential election event is approaching. Each party claimed the aura of victory was in their hands. At the grassroots level, there was strong optimism for candidate number 2, even though it was undeniable, the electability of Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno was due to the increase in potential undecided voters from the Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin’s camp.

Many homeland political observers, one of the biggest causes is a statement of support from the Berkarya (Working) Party Vice Chairperson, Muchdi Purwoprandjono. With the case of human rights incriminating former intelligence officials, and also related to the branding that has been echoed by Jokowi’s supporters. Especially PDIP as the biggest supporter, who is anti of New Order.

Is that so? Nobody knows for sure. The results of various polls also indicate high subjectivity for each candidate. On the other hand, with the recognition of Muchdi who had asked for the permission of the Chairman, Hutomo Mandala Putra as known as Tommy Suharto, his support for the incumbent presidential candidate reinforced the notion that Jokowi could not escape the shadow of the New Order.

Moreover, the party that overshadowed Muchdi, the Working Party, also assured him. They did not question Muchdi’s personal support for Jokowi. As a Chairman, Tommy was also did not really care as long as the cadres remained focused on winning the Working Party in the 2019 legislative elections in order to enter parliament.

Meanwhile, according to Secretary General of Employment, Priyo Budi Santoso, Muchdi’s support for Jokowi was a personal attitude. He claimed to have reported Muchdi’s problem to Tommy. “That is Mr. Muchdi’s personal maneuver which has nothing to do with the Working Party. We are fine, it doesn’t affect us,” Priyo said separately.

Is the maneuver something intentional and has the party’s approval to defuse the incumbent? Responses related to this maneuver tend to be quiet publications. The public still keeps various questions about Muchdi’s support for Jokowi. But the Deputy Chairperson of the National Winning Body (BPN), Ahmad Muzani, claimed that the electability of the Prabowo-Sandiaga continued to increase, not least in the area that had been known to be a pro Jokowi-Ma’ruf: Central Java.

Muzani claimed the increase in electability because Prabowo-Sandiaga was heavily campaigning in Central Java lately. “Pak Prabowo’s voice in Central Java has started to increase. Jokowi’s voice has diminished,” Muzani said on Friday (2/22/2019). However, Muzani did not say how much Prabowo’s electability increases in Central Java based on an internal survey conducted by BPN.

Accompanied by Bibit Waluyo

As was known to the public, in early February Prabowo visited four districts in Central Java: Purbalingga, Banjarnegara, Blora and Grobogan. He was accompanied by former Central Java Governor, Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Bibit Waluyo. The former Kopassus General Commander (Danjen) gave a national speech at the Hotel Po Grand Ballroom, Semarang.

During his campaign in Central Java, Prabowo raised a number of issues, including corruption, stopping imports, and advancing agricultural business. He also criticized the behaviour of elites who often steal the budget and considered the behaviour to be the cause of high poverty rates.

In the virtual domain, supporters of the 02 pair continued to burn public sentiment. This virtual force gained momentum because it was related to these issues that there was an “inconsistency” between President Jokowi’s statement during the second debate with the facts on the ground. Starting from the promise not to import food to the issue of corruption that befell many party cadres supporting Jokowi.

Backwards, claims are growing in hopes that the 02’s pair victory will be well-founded. Drawn from one of the survey results used as a reference for the community, including survey from the Kompas, September 24 to October 5 2018 over 1,200 respondents released Wednesday (10/24/2018).

In the survey it was concluded that even though it was still superior, Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s electability was increasingly competing with Prabowo-Sandiaga in a number of provinces. Jokowi-Ma’ruf excelled with a difference of over 10% in Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Bali, the Nusa Tenggara region, plus a combination of Maluku and Papua.

However, Jokowi-Ma’ufin’s electability difference with Prabowo-Sandiaga is not safe. On Sulawesi Island, for example, 44% of respondents chose Jokowi-Ma’ruf, 38.5% chose Prabowo-Sandiaga. The 17.5% of respondents do not have a choice.

In Sumatra, the highest electability was achieved by Prabowo-Sandi with 40.5%, while respondents who chose Jokowi-Ma’ruf were 38.1%. In Java, Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s victory is predicted to reach 57.1%. The strength of the support came from Central Java, Yogyakarta and East Java. In Central Java and Yogyakarta, the victory of Jokowi-Ma’ruf reached three quarters of the total votes.

However, the potential for selection of Jokowi-Ma’ruf is weaker in West Java and DKI Jakarta. In these two regions, support for this couple was slightly under Prabowo-Sandiaga.

Kompas Survey also predicts a fierce battle in Sumatra. Here, Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s electability 38.1%, Prabowo-Sandi 40.5%. Viewed more deeply, the voting base of Jokowi-Ma’ruf is in North Sumatra, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung, and Lampung. Other regions such as Aceh, West Sumatra, and Riau tend to choose Prabowo-Sandiaga. The campaign period, according to the Kompas Survey, will be a moment of opportunity for both parties to increase the chances of their respective electability.

Evidence that Kompas Survey is a reference from manoeuvre from Prabowo-Sandi that targeted Central Java recently. The result can be seen in the regions which at the time of the 2018 Central Java gubernatorial election was the basis of Sudirman Said-Ida Fauziyah’s victory. As is known, Sudirman Said is now the Director of Materials and Debates from the Prabowo-Sandi National Winning Body (BPN). In the Central Java governor election, the Sudirman-Ida managed to win 41.23%.

Many national political observers predict, if Prabowo-Sandi succeeds in increasing Sudirman-Ida’s voters becomes 45%, the potential for victory is already in their hands. With a note, they should not miss in “their cage”.